Diamond News Archives

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Seattle House prices fall year-over-year, as do New York & San Francisco Bay Area condo prices. Los Angeles, San Diego tick up. Denver, Boston hit new highs. Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix aspire to their crazy peaks of Housing Bubble 1.

Year-over-year declines have spread to house prices in the Seattle metro, after having cropped up in condo prices in the San Francisco Bay Area and the New York metro in prior months, according to the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index^[1] released today. These are the first such declines since Housing Bust 1 that followed our fabulous and crazy Housing Bubble 1. In many other markets, year-over-year price gains continued to wither away. So here we go.

Seattle House Prices:

Prices of single-family houses in the Seattle metro ticked up 1.0% in May from April, which was less than half the seasonal increase last year. And so the index fell 1.2% from May last year, the first year-over-year decline since Housing Bust 1.

The Case-Shiller Index is a rolling three-month average that is released with one-month delay; today’s release represents closings that were entered into public records in March, April, and May.

The index was set at 100 for January 2000; a value of 200 indicates prices have doubled since January 2000. Every housing market on this list of the most splendid housing bubbles in America has an index value of over 200 in its history, either during Housing Bubble 1 or during Housing Bubble 2. This is the minimum requirement to make this list.

New York Condo Prices:

The Case-Shiller Index, which in most cities only covers single-family houses, also covers condos in a handful of big condo markets. The index for condos in the vast...

(Bloomberg) -- Gold bulls are betting there’s more to the metal’s rally than rates.

Bullion is on its way to a third straight monthly gain, trading near a six-year high as central banks signal easier monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut U.S. interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday. Gold analysts and traders are looking for affirmation from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that further reductions are in store to justify the run-up, with some saying the precious metal may have gotten ahead of itself.

“The market can easily pull back in the wake of a cut without the overall gold rally being altered, and that’s quite likely,” said James Steel, chief precious metals analyst at HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. “Trade issues are probably still going to be supportive. The general geopolitical background is supportive, and we could see some financial market volatility, which would likely be helpful for gold” on safe-haven buying.

With gold futures trading little changed near $1,443 an ounce hours ahead of the Fed’s decision, the following charts show the broader bullish case for owning bullion:

Haven Demand

Gold is benefiting as signs of slowing economies fuel demand for the metal as a haven asset. There are indications that things could get worse before they get better for global growth. The International Monetary Fund further reduced its outlook, already the lowest since the financial crisis, saying the projected pickup in 2020 is “precarious.” Singapore may underscore the IMF’s case, with economic data deteriorating in the export-reliant country, raising the risk of a recession in the former tiger economy.

A Fed Bank of New York gauge puts the risk of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months at the highest since 2008, and Societe...