Diamond News Archives
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Home[1] | Wire[2] | Expect the ECB to Use a "Climate Crisis" to Justify Their Next Stimulus Plan
According to the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and the IIF (Institute of International finance) global debt has soared to a new record high. The level of government debt around the world has ballooned since the financial crisis, reaching levels never seen before during peacetime. This has happened in the middle of an unprecedented monetary experiment that injected more than $20 trillion in the economy and lowered interest rates to the lowest levels seen in decades. The balance sheet of the major central banks rose to levels never seen before, with the Bank Of Japan at 100% of the country’s GDP, the ECB at 40% and the Federal Reserve at 20%.
If this monetary experiment has proven anything it is that lower rates and higher liquidity are not tools to help deleverage, but to incentivize debt. Furthermore, this dangerous experiment has proven that a policy that was designed as a temporary measure due to exceptional circumstances has become the new norm. The so-called normalization process lasted only a few months in 2018, only to resume asset purchases and rate cuts.
Despite the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus in decades, global economic growth is weakening and leading economies’ productivity growth is close to zero. Money velocity, a measure of economic activity relative to money supply, worsens.
We have explained many times why this happens. Low rates and high liquidity are perverse incentives to maintain the crowding out of government from the private sector, they also perpetuate overcapacity due to endless refinancing of non-productive and obsolete sectors t lower rates, and the number of zombie companies -those that cannot pay their interest expenses with...
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(IDEX Online) - Larry Spicer, a security expert, has joined the leadership team of Jewelers Mutual. Spicer, who has held leadership positions at Aurora Healthcare, Home Depot, and Kohl's, has assumed the role of vice president of Loss Prevention and Risk Management Services.
Most recently Spicer was the director, Public Safety at Aurora Healthcare in Milwaukee where he was responsible for the development and implementation of security strategies and procedures to safeguard over 70,000 team members.
During his first few months at Jewelers Mutual, he will work closely with David Sexton, who is retiring after 39 years with the company....
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I’m of the long standing view that Fed chairs have one prime responsibility above all others: Keeping confidence[1] up, and if it requires to sweet talk problems then that’s what it takes. The often classic quote by Ben Bernanke of “subprime is contained[2]” right before it blew up in everybody’s face being a prime example. Is the Fed that blind to reality or just on an elaborate marketing mission to ensure that nobody panics and sells stocks? I leave that judgment to the reader.
But I can see differing messaging coming out the Fed when people are in office and when not.
Take corporate debt for example.
Here’s Jay Powell in May of this year sweeting talking and dismissing any concerns[3]:
“Business debt does not present the kind of elevated risks to the stability of the financial system that would lead to broad harm to households and businesses should conditions deteriorate. Moreover, banks and other financial institutions have sizable loss-absorbing buffers,” he said. “The growth in business debt does not rely on short-term funding, and overall funding risk in the financial system is moderate.”
Sweet, no worries then. Odd then that Janet Yellen, no longer in office, feels free to say in essence the exact opposite[4]:
“I have expressed concerns about leveraged lending,” Yellen said during a keynote discussion that was closed to the press. “I do think non-financial corporations have run up, really, quite a lot of debt.”
“What I would worry about is if the economy encounters a downturn, we could see a good deal of corporate distress. If corporations are in distress, they fire workers and cut back on investment spending. And I think that’s something that...
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(IDEX Online) - It may be too early for retailers to celebrate a strong end to the year, but with total U.S. jewelry and watch sales up for the third month in a row, it's a good sign that 2019 will end much better than it started.
Sales of fine jewelry and fine watches increased by 6 percent in the U.S. market in September compared to September 2018, as the graph below illustrates. Following a scant 1- and 2-percent rise in July and August, this 6-percent increase marks the strongest results year-over-year in 13 months.
Outlook
With the all-import Thanksgiving shopping weekend that kicks off the holiday shopping period almost upon us, there are high hopes for a strong finish to the year. Every holiday survey is predicting positive gains that should have retailers feeling positive. However, there are indicators that not all is well.
The OECD says the global outlook is unstable. World GDP growth fell to 2.9 percent this year - its lowest rate since the financial crisis - and is expected to remain stuck at 3 percent over the next two years.
Adding to the gloom, the organization says global trade is stagnating and is dragging down economic activity in almost all major economies. "Policy uncertainty is undermining investment and future jobs and incomes. Risks of even weaker growth remain high, including from an escalation of trade conflicts, geopolitical tensions, the possibility of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China and climate change."
But that's in the future. For the moment, retailers should enjoy what seems to be the start of a meaningful improvement as consumers loosen their purse strings and return to buying jewelry in earnest. ...
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(IDEX Online) - LVMH has raised its bid for U.S. jewelry chain Tiffany & Co to almost $16 billion, according to reports by Reuters. Earlier this month, Tiffany turned down the French luxury group's $120-per-share offer, arguing that the company is worth more.
Reuters quoted sources that said Tiffany agreed to give LVMH access to its books. They also said the jewelry company plans to continue negotiating for a better offer, however, there is no guarantee a deal will be reached.
In related news, Tiffany has hired former Barneys New York chief executive Daniella Vitale as executive vice president and chief brand officer. The brand officer post is new for the company. She will oversee Tiffany's merchandising and marketing efforts and will report directly to CEO Alessandro Bogliolo.
Vitale was previously president and chief executive of Gucci in the Americas. ...