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Gold futures prices climbed Monday, with the recent retreat in the U.S. dollar helping to lift the metal to its strongest finish in nearly two weeks, as investors tested key chart territory for bruised bullion.

August gold GCQ8, +0.20%[1] tacked on $3.80, or 0.3%, to settle at $1,259.60 an ounce, the highest finish for a most-active contract since June 26, according to FactSet data.

“All will depend on the U.S. dollar for gold,” said Chintan Karnani, chief market analyst at Insignia Consultants. And “more negative news from the U.S. trade war should be bullish for gold.”

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization meeting coming up this week may “also affect the U.S. dollar and gold,” said Karnani. “Trump and his bag of surprises in the NATO meet will keep financial markets nervous.”

Opinion column: Could Trump’s tariff war lead to a ‘Reagan moment’ in global trade?[2]

Gold notched a slight gain for last week, after a mostly upbeat U.S. jobs report[3] was seen keeping the Federal Reserve on a path toward gradually higher interest rates, moving at no faster a pace than longtrend expectations for markets. Yet, gold futures at the start of last week had hit their lowest levels of 2018, knocked lower by a strengthening dollar.

Gold “needs to break and trade” over $1,272.70 until Friday “to attract short covering and make way for $1,302,” said Karnani. But if gold does not break that 100-week moving average of $1,272.70, “then it will trade in a wider $1,235-$1,272.70 range.”

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