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One of these indicators isn’t like the other one.

Take Citi’s Macro Surprise Index for the US and compare it to the NASDAQ index and The Fed Funds Target Rate (Upper Bound).

macru

In 2018, both The Fed Funds Target Rate (upper bound) and NASDAQ Composite index have risen.  But the Citi Macro Surprise index has fallen over 2018.

And then there is Italy which is threatening to leave the Euro. Its 10-year sovereign yield is up 26.6 basis points today.

italy10.png

Vesuvius Redux?

 

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