Waiting for the market to vindicate your thesis about under or overvaluation may be the hardest part of successful investing.
Timing is always the giant variable that is completely out of your control. You can be 100% right about the basic investment hypothesis, and then watch emotional, bubble-inflated markets defy logic for years at at a time.
Markets always, always reflect reality. Eventually. In the interim, you buy, accumulate, and wait.
The past few months have seen some unusual, maybe even unique, developments in the gold and silver futures markets, with gold becoming extremely bearish and silver almost ridiculously bullish.
Silver has been and remains the really interesting case. Speculators – who are almost never net-short – spent a few weeks in that state before briefly reverting to slightly net long. But last week they jumped back to net-short in a big way.
This has flummoxed industry analysts and led to some silver-to-the-moon predictions [1]which, based on the rising volatility in the broader financial markets, are at least plausible.
To sum up, gold’s technicals are improving and silver’s are so positive that you have to wonder if there’s a catch, though what that would be isn’t obvious.
ORIGINAL SOURCE: Paper Gold Market Normalizing, Silver Getting Even More Extreme[2] by John Rubino at Dollar Collapse[3] on 5/5/18...
References
- ^ silver-to-the-moon predictions (seekingalpha.com)
- ^ Paper Gold Market Normalizing, Silver Getting Even More Extreme (www.dollarcollapse.com)
- ^ Dollar Collapse (www.dollarcollapse.com)