Risk assets have taken a fresh thumping in May. As of last night, the S&P 500 index was down 5.5% on the month, with energy (-9.2%), technology (-8%), materials (-7.4%), industrials (-7.1%) and financials (-5.6%) faring worst, and so-called ‘defensives’: real estate (-.05%), utilities (-1.6%), health sick care (-2.3%) and consumer staples (-2.9%) faring less bad, as shown above from Yardeni Research[1].
Canada’s TSX stock index lost about half as much as the S&P 500 this month, but still -2.7%, again with economically sensitive energy stocks (-9.77%), materials (-7.66%) and financials (-3.43%) faring worst, real estate (1.5%) best; gold producers (-1.4%), and dividend-paying stocks (-2.33%) less bad, as shown above from my partner Cory Venable.
Copper (-8.6% on the month) has tumbled with global sentiment, along with oil (WTI -9.6%) while gold is just flat (.55%).
The most sketchy credits have followed equities lower (as they normally do) with US Junk bonds (-1.19%) and high yield (-1.13%). Investment grade corporate bonds are higher by a percent.
Traditional safe havens–government treasuries and the US dollar (vs. loonie)–have gained on bets that weakening demand and stock markets will prompt central bank rate cuts in 2019 (80% probability of US cuts now priced in). Yesterday, Bank of Canada head Stephen Poloz said the BOC remains on hold, but with a tiny 1.2% 2019 GDP growth forecast, rate cuts loom likely in the second half of the year.
Acknowledging that the BOC is probably done hiking this cycle, Canada’s 10-year treasury price rose this month, and its yield has fallen from 1.73% on April 30 to 1.56 today. This is back at the level it was just before the Trump election when tax cut promises drove dreams of inflation and...